2026 Budget to Stay Within Fiscal Responsibility Act’s 1.5% Surplus Target — IC Research

Accra, Ghana — The upcoming 2026 Budget is expected to remain within the 1.5% primary surplus target of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) mandated by Ghana’s Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), according to IC Research, a leading financial market analysis firm.

The report notes that the government has demonstrated sufficient policy credibility to maintain fiscal discipline in 2026, following improved performance under the ongoing IMF-supported programme.

As of the first eight months of 2025, Ghana recorded a primary surplus of 1.1% of GDP, positioning the country on track to meet the 1.5% year-end target — a milestone the IMF described as a strong signal of macroeconomic recovery.

Fiscal Credibility Restored

IC Research said the expected compliance with the Fiscal Responsibility Act will mark the first time since its enactment in 2018 that Ghana has achieved the statutory target.

“This will confirm Ghana’s return to the path of fiscal sustainability,” the firm stated, adding that it reflects a meaningful turnaround from years of fiscal slippages.

The IMF also projects that the 2026 Budget will remain fiscally compliant for the second consecutive year, maintaining the 1.5% primary surplus benchmark — the minimum requirement under the FRA.

Risks and Fiscal Pressures

However, IC Research cautioned that the government’s ability to sustain this trajectory beyond the IMF programme could face challenges.

“We flag the continued revenue underperformance amid expectation of a ramp-up in spending pressure as a major test of the authorities’ resolve to sustain fiscal credibility beyond the IMF programme,” the firm warned.

The 2026 Budget, to be presented by Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson on November 13, 2025, will therefore be a crucial test of the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term debt sustainability.

Source: Accra Business News