IMF Board Approval for Ghana’s Fifth Bailout Review Expected in December — IC Research

Accra, Ghana — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to approve Ghana’s fifth programme review in December 2025, paving the way for a US$385 million disbursement, according to a forecast by IC Research.

The anticipated approval follows the staff-level agreement reached between the Government of Ghana and the IMF in October 2025, after the authorities met all six quantitative performance criteria and four indicative targets for the period ending June 2025.

The next tranche of funds, once released, is expected to bolster Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves and provide a critical buffer ahead of the country’s January 2026 Eurobond debt service, estimated at US$689 million.

IMF Strikes Optimistic Tone

In its review analysis, IC Research noted that the IMF adopted a more upbeat and confident tone during the fifth review, marking a departure from the more cautious language used in earlier assessments.

“We took a closer view of the language adopted by the Fund at the end of the fifth review and inferred a more positive and tangibly confident assessment of the latest performance and near-term economic prospects,” IC Research said.

The Fund described the authorities’ measures to ensure financial sector stability as “strong” and noted “notable strides” in addressing longstanding challenges in the energy sector — areas that had previously drawn concern.

According to IC Research, this reflects growing confidence that macroeconomic stabilisation is taking hold, with inflation projected to remain within the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target band of 8% ±2%, thereby creating space for gradual monetary policy easing.

“This indicates the Fund’s confidence in the durability of Ghana’s disinflation trend and support for the Central Bank’s cautious pivot towards policy rate cuts,” the report added.

Outlook and Implications

The IMF expressed optimism that Ghana’s positive economic momentum will continue into 2026, marking a clear shift from the more reserved tone of the earlier programme reviews.

IC Research observed that the Fund’s language had progressively softened in previous reviews — from “strong” in the first review to “generally strong” in the second, “generally satisfactory” in the third, and finally “marked deterioration” in the fourth.

The renewed confidence, it noted, suggests that the Executive Board’s approval in December 2025 should be smooth and favourable, enabling the release of US$385 million for budgetary and balance of payments support.

Ghana’s net international reserves stood at US$8.4 billion as of August 2025, equivalent to 3.6 months of import cover — comfortably above the programme target of 3.0 months set for 2026.

Source: Accra Business News