2025 Budget might be a Necessary Gamble for Ghana’s Economic Recovery – ASJ

2025 Budget:A Necessary Gamble for Ghana’s Economic Recovery—Ghana’s 2025 budget has been hailed as a crucial step toward economic stabilization, but its success hinges on several risky financial assumptions, cautions Joe Jackson, CEO of Dalex Finance. While the plan takes bold measures to drive recovery, external challenges could threaten its effectiveness.

Jackson, speaking on The Big Issues on Citi Fm on March 15, 2025, acknowledged the government’s commitment to economic stabilization under the IMF program, noting that the budget is built on optimistic revenue projections, improved tax refund mechanisms, and overall investor confidence.

“This budget was essential given our economic situation. However, it relies on major bets on revenue meeting expectations, on optimism translating into real economic gains, and on external conditions remaining stable,” he said.

The budget hinges on the assumption that Ghana’s tax revenue will increase, key sectors will rebound, and inflation will remain under control. However, Jackson warned that any external shocks such as a sharp depreciation of the Cedi, a downturn in cocoa production, or falling gold prices could derail the entire strategy.

Despite the challenges, Jackson commended Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson for taking bold steps to address the crisis. The government has introduced new tax reforms, a revised tax refund regime, and policies aimed at restoring business confidence.

“They have made some interesting moves, but let’s be clear these are big bets. If they pay off, Ghana’s economy will recover. If not, we could face serious setbacks,” Jackson emphasized.

With Ghana navigating its post-crisis recovery, the coming months will test whether these economic assumptions hold. If revenue targets are met and external risks remain minimal, the budget could mark a turning point. However, a single major shock could derail progress, putting renewed pressure on policymakers to rethink their strategy.